Stochastic models of foot and mouth disease in feral pigs in the Australian semi-arid rangelands

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is one of the world’s most important livestock diseases and pigs Sus scrofa are highly susceptible. In countries with significant feral pig populations, such as Australia, the possibility that FMD may become established in these populations is a cause of considerable concern.

Current models of FMD in feral pigs in Australia are based on deterministic population and behavioural parameters. However, the population dynamics of feral pigs in the semi-arid regions of Australia vary stochastically, in concert with the biomass of rainfall-driven pasture.

This study explored how stochastic variation in the population dynamics of feral pigs in semi-arid rangelands affected the probability of persistence of an FMD epizootic, and its impact on the density of feral pigs. A stochastic model of feral pig population dynamics, with death rate linked to vegetation and rainfall, was linked to a deterministic model of FMD in feral pigs.

Author Dexter, N.
Date 01/04/2003
Year 2003
Secondary title Journal of Applied Ecology
Volume 40
Number 2
Pages 293 -306
Notes Notes
ISBN/ISSN DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2003.00792.x
Region Australia - national