Surveillance strategies for detecting disease in wildlife are reviewed. Opportunistic and structured surveillance schemes are examined, and the detection of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in Australia discussed in more detail. The probability of detecting an individual case of FMD in feral pigs in Australia with the current opportunistic surveillance scheme is estimated to be less than 0 multiplied by 0015. A model derived from the binomial distribution and for sampling without replacement estimated that between 28 and 3077 FMD cases would occur before the disease outbreak is detected. The range depends on the level of certainty required for detection. A model of the dynamics of the disease and an equation for estimating sample sizes for sampling without replacement were combined.
|Author||Hone, J. and Pech, R.|
|Secondary title||Journal of Environmental Management|
|Region||Australia - national|